After properly predicting Aaron Kelly would be eliminated last week, the HCD Research Mediacurves poll correctly selected Michael Lynche as the contestant to be voted off this week. Once again I have graphed the percentage numbers from their results, but I will again decipher the true vote count from the percentages. This week there were substantially more people surveyed in their poll, from 3,151 last week to 3,476 this week, an increase of 325 (over 10%). Let's break down the raw number of votes:
1) Crystal 55.3% of 3,476 = 1,922 votes, an increase of 456 from last week. Her three week raw vote counts are: 1109, 1466, 1922
2) Lee 18.6% 0f 3,476 = 646 votes, a decrease of 118 from last week. His series: 387, 764, 646
3) Casey 14.2% of 3,476 = 493, a slight increase of 14 from last week. His series: 548, 479, 493
4) Mike 11.9% of 3,476 = 414, a decrease of 82 from last week. His series: 327, 496, 414
So next week we will see what happens to Mike's 300-400 survey respondents. This week it appears all of Aaron's 261 votes from last week must have gone to Crystal, along with most the 325 of the people who had not responded last week. From the trend here, it would seem the voting is not even needed for the next two weeks, Casey will likely be eliminated next week and Lee during the finale week. The ascent of Crystal's voting numbers, both in percentages and in raw votes is pretty overwhelming.
I also compiled the raw voting numbers from DialIdol where the results for this week are similar but not identical. There Crystal's lead is not as insurmountable with 34.7% of the raw votes there, and Casey actually had a slight lead over Lee this week, 29.7% versus 26.1%. But there Big Mike only received 9.3% of the votes, even lower than his percentages on the HCD Research poll.
Thanks again for posting the results from our Mediacurves Idol Democracry study. We appreciate the coverage. I was wondering if you had an updated excel with the new data on Idol contestant's facebook fans. If you do, can you send it to benatmediacurves@gmail.com? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteJust another suggestion you may want to consider: Because there are fewer contestants in Idol each week, the percentage of votes that each contestant has will continue to grow since there are less pieces to the pie. As a results, you may want to adjust the numbers for your graphs to take into account the number of contestants each week. This will help provide a better week-to-week comparison and can be done through a weighted average.
Thanks again for your continued coverage of our study!
Ben
Online Marketing Specialist, MediaCurves™
HCD Research