Does Elimination Help Idol Contestants?

I just compiled my latest Facebook Fan statistics, and one interesting thing I notice, is that right after any contestant is eliminated they seem to get a boost in their number of fans. This may be due to going on the talk show circuit afterwards (Ellen, Letterman, etc.) as well as giving interviews on their local FOX affiliates. For example this week Aaron Kelly gained almost 900 new fans (from 31,310 to 32,179) in 4 days after gaining less than 700 new fans over the previous 6 days. Siobhan had gained over 1,300 new fans from Apr 27 to May 3 and still gained over 400 (from 25,776 to 26,211) over the past 4 days. I watched some of Siobhan's post elimination video footage and she interviews quite well. She definitely is an interesting character! I still think she should go into Broadway musicals where I think she would excel.

As for the final four, Lee and Crystal are definitely pulling away from Casey and Mike in terms of Facebook fans. Since my last report on May 3, Crystal gained over 4,500 new fans (from 86,575 to 91,142) and Lee gained over 3,700 (from 43,866 to 47,650). In the past 4 days Casey only gained 200 new fans (from 36,415 to 36,604) so Siobhan gained twice as many fans than Casey, and Aaron gained over three times as many! And Mike is still proving his fans do not care about Facebook as he still only has 6,771 fans. I also noticed that Andrew and Katie continue to lose just a few fans (Andrew down 200 and Katie down 140, but Tim Urban actually still gained 250 fans in the past 4 days. What has he done in the past 4 days that he would gain as many new fans as Casey?

I also received an e-mail from HCD Research who were happy their poll finally predicted Aaron Kelly's proper departure. Their polls have put Aaron at the bottom for several weeks and now they are finally rid of him! Even all the multiple votes from the tweens, county music fans and Pennsylvania residents could not save him this week. However, I'll have to say I do like the kid and think he will do just fine. He is actually younger than my daughter which really makes me feel old, and I would not be surprised to hear Aaron Kelly's voice on country radio when my family makes me listen to that stuff. I can see him doing a special duet someday with Kellie Pickler, so they can call it "Kellie and Kelly" the County Idol duo or something.

My other graph to post this week is my updated WhatNotToSing graph. The last two weeks have not been kind to Crystal's web ratings and now she is mixed in the middle of the pack. Interestingly, even though Lee is now thought to be the new "front runner" the past two weeks, his WhatNotToSing ratings do not demonstrate this very well. You would think Mike would be considered a frontrunner as well, but he was in the bottom two this week. And Casey's web ratings jump up and down every week like a jumping bean, yet he was not in the bottom two. Thus you can never tell what the voting public will do.