Thursday, April 1, 2010

Latest HCD Polls results and my own Facebook Fans Stats

Yes, I just love American Idol statistics. Here are the results from the HCD survey which I received in my e-mail. I had heard on the news that a poll had suggested that Aaron Kelly would be departing, and I realized that it was the HCD poll that I had participated in! I am curious of the demographic breakdown of the 3418 people who responded to this poll.


Respondents were asked to pick the one contestant that they thought should advance to the next round of the competition:
Contestant
% that voted for contestant to move on
Crystal Bowersox
29.2
Lee Dewyze
14.5
Casey James
10.4
Katie Stevens
9.1
Michael Lynche
8.8
Siobhan Magnus
7.4
Andrew Garcia
6.4
Tim Urban
5.5
Didi Benami
4.8
Aaron Kelly
3.8



This poll did predict 2 of the bottom three correctly, but Katie is again much higher on this poll. just as she was last week. I believe there are a lot of Katie Stevens lovers taking this poll! I was also surprised to see the number of voters drop so much from the 7397 they reported last week to only 3418 this week. I would think as the season progresses there would be more people taking the poll. not less.

I have now performed some quick searches on Facebook to create my own poll to see how many people become fans of each of the contestants as a sort of "popularity contest" which might be more indicative of how many people will actually vote for them, and especially those who will vote multiple times. For more data I decided to add the complete top 12 so we can see how many Facebook fans some eliminated contestants had.

1. Crystal Bowersox - 40,576 fans
2. Andrew Garcia - 38,396
3. Casey James - 27,662
4. Aaron Kelly - 23,527
5. Katie Stevens - 18,536
6. Lee Dewyze - 14,887
7. Siobhan Magnus - 14,845
8*. Didi Benami - 13,621
9. Tim Urban - 8,746
10* Lacey Brown - 8,488.
11. Michael Lynche - 3,805
12* Paige Miles - 2,785
* = eliminated

This is interesting first off since it demonstrates that Andrew has a ton of Facebook fans, almost as many as Crystal. It is also interesting to note that Tim Urban does not have nearly as many fans as Didi, but she was still eliminated. I am also amazed how few fans Big Mike has on Facebook. I wonder why that is? Andrew  has 10x as many Facebook fans as Big Mike. And Katie has more fans than Lee, Siobhan and Big Mike, but she has been in the bottom three two weeks in a row. Her fans must not be calling enough!

WhatNotToSing finalized their results for this week too:

#SlotPerformanceWeb RatingσResult
18/10
Treat Her Like A Lady
Lee DeWyze
88
17Safe
29/10
Midnight Train To Georgia
Crystal Bowersox
82
12Safe
33/10
Ready For Love
Michael Lynche
74
19Safe
42/10
Hold On, I'm Comin'
Casey James
70
16Safe
56/10
Forever
Andrew Garcia
65
17Safe
610/10
Ain't No Sunshine
Aaron Kelly
46
16Safe
77/10
Chain Of Fools
Katie Stevens
45
16Bottom Group
84/10
What Becomes Of The Brokenhearted
Didi Benami
28
18Eliminated
91/10
Through The Fire
Siobhan Magnus
27
13Safe
105/10
Sweet Love
Tim Urban
19
16Bottom Group
Siobhan was definitely hammered in their compiled web ratings, but luckily she survived. Otherwise there are no big surprises in their results. And Tim Urban keeps slipping through despite being pounded on everybody's ratings. The fellow should definitely run for office someday, If you look at the updated contestant list sorted by average web rating, it gives some interesting information. Crystal's "off week" actually solidified her lead since Siobhan's average fell substantially while Crystal's hardly fell at all. Lee, Big Mike and Casey are now all very similarly clustered in the top 5 with average ratings in the low 60's and Aaron, Andrew and Katie are now all clustered around 40 as the ones to disappear in the next few weeks. Then there is Teflon Tim still at the bottom, below eliminated Lacey and Paige but still showing up on the program for some unknown reason.

1. Crystal: Average Web Rating: 83.8
2. Siobhan: 67.8
3. Lee: 63.0
4. Mike: 62.2
5. Casey: 60.2
6*. Didi: 52
7. Aaron: 42
8. Andrew: 39.8
9. Katie: 39.7
10*. Paige: 29.6
11*. Lacey: 28.8
12. Tim 23.7

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