Most of the Facebook fan pages are actually still there, it is just not very easy to find them anymore. For some reason, now I have to type their name into the search field, and then click the "See More Results for ..." selection to find their fan pages. But when I do that, then the old Fan pages show up with the proper counts except for Tim Urban's which does seem to be gone. There are actually a ton of Tim Urban Facebook pages out there, but none that had the ~20,000 fans he had last week. Oh well, he has been eliminated so I can stop tracking him. However, since I can still find Andrew and Katie fan pages, I can still track them just to keep their lines going. In reality, it now appears that just about all the contestants have "flatlined" on my graph except for Crystal Bowersox and Lee Dewyze. My latest data point is actually 5 days since my last sampling (April 22) and those two are the only ones to have significantly increased. In the five day period Crystal has added about 6,300 new fans (from 73,174 to 79,464) and Lee added about 2,800 (from 37,116 to 39,917) so he is definitely distancing himself from Casey James now. No other contestant added more than 1,000 new fans over the past five days.
So tonight is Shania Twain night with the six contestants performing her songs and being mentored by her. I am guessing she will be fine with Crystal, Lee, Casey and Aaron, and I am curious to see how it goes with Siobhan and Mike. At this point I think Aaron is pretty much a goner in the next week or two, and it is up to Casey, Siobhan and Big Mike to do something wonderful to get into the top three with Crystal and Lee.
Another interesting question is how Tim Urban's departure might help the others in terms of voting. Since he lived in Texas near Casey, I could see his Texan vote adding to Casey's tally. But since Tim was also popular with the teen crowd, I could see his under 20 crowd voting more for Aaron and his cute teen smile. Then there is the VoteForTheWorst crowd who is now supposed to vote for Siobhan, even though many on the board actually wanted to vote for Aaron instead. It will be interesting to see who will be in the bottom three tomorrow, but a lot depends on what transpires tonight.
I am also curious who the west coast crowd are voting for now that all the contestants live in the central and eastern time zones. We now have one from Texas, one from Illinois, one from Ohio, one from Florida, one from Pennsylvania and one from Massachusetts. I have even added a US map with the hometowns of the six remaining contestants in red and all the previous Idol winners in green. It is interesting that Mount Prospect IL, Elliston, OH, Sonestown, PA and Barnstable, MA almost all would fit on a straight lattitude line as you travel east. Four of the six remaining contestants including both of the front runners, Crystal and Lee, are from north of the Mason Dixon line. None of the previous winners have been northerners before with the winner living furthest north being David Cook from Blue Springs, MO. And if it ends up being Crystal and Lee in the finals that would make for a midwestern final, where both contestants had been in the Chicago music scene.
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